NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA | NASDAQ

Price Alert Chart Builder DCF Calculator

$222.27

+$2.93 (+1.34%)

At close: Sep 18, 2026, 4:00 PM ET

$224.50

+$2.23 (+1.00%)

Pre-market: Sep 21, 2026, 8:08 AM ET

Overview Rating Statistics Financials Earnings Analysts Ownership Dividends Profile

Rating

Updated: Sep 17, 2026

80.9

Fundamentals Excellent

Market Sentiment Bearish

Moat Wide

Fundamentals

76/85

valuation

Undervalued 19/25

growth

High 20/20

quality

High 25/25

health

Fortress 12/15

Rating Excellent

Sentiment

4.9/15

4.9

Bearish

RSI: 45.2

Market sentiment is cautiously negative despite neutral price momentum with RSI at 45.2 indicating consolidation rather than capitulation. News flow has shifted from pure AI leadership to scrutiny of concentration, Taiwan-based customer exposure, and sustainability of outperformance, partially offset by $46B in capital returns and dividend optimism. Smart-money is in distribution mode with super-investors net reducing (19 reduces vs 10 adds) and Congressional activity skewed to sales, while insider open-market sales are routine compensation-related and neutral with no high-conviction buying to offset the cautious institutional stance.

Moat

Wide

Switching Costs Property and Secrets Network Effects

Wide moat anchored by Data Center at $277.8B (92% of product revenue) as the core profit engine. Structural protection comes from proprietary GPU architectures and CUDA software stack (Property and Secrets) reinforced by $23.6B in R&D that competitors cannot replicate quickly, creating prohibitive Switching Costs as models, libraries, and enterprise workflows are built mission-critical on NVIDIA. Developer ecosystem creates Network Effects as more developers and partners optimize for CUDA, increasing platform value. Durability validated by 59.5% ROIC, 74.67% gross margin, 65.21% operating margin and 63.66% net margin.

Bull Case

• Data Center hyperscale compounder: $277.8B (92%) levered to AI/cloud capex with 110.07% 3Y revenue growth, 166.06% EPS growth and 130.86% FCF growth demonstrating continued demand acceleration.
• CUDA ecosystem lock-in and operating leverage: 74.67% gross and 65.21% operating margins plus $23.6B R&D barrier drive pricing power and mission-critical switching costs across enterprise, cloud, and Omniverse/vGPU stacks.
• Growth-adjusted valuation discount: forward PE 22.79 with forward PEG of 0.386668 and DCF value of $276.13 vs $213.9 price (~29% implied upside, $345.21 consensus target) prices hypergrowth cheaply.

Bear Case

• Extreme concentration risk: 92% reliance on Data Center means any AI digestion pause, cloud capex cut, or pricing pressure directly hits profitability with minimal diversification from Gaming ($8.0B, 3%) and other segments.
• Geographic and supply-chain exposure: 20% revenue billed to Taiwan and 7% to China plus Taiwan-centric manufacturing creates geopolitical, export-control, and disruption risk highlighted in recent coverage.
• Smart-money distribution overhang: 31 super-investors net reducing, Congressional net selling (13 sales vs 7 buys), and negative institutional tone risk near-term multiple compression despite strong fundamentals.

Final Verdict

An 80.9/100 profile reflects an exceptional fundamental compounder with a wide, R&D-defended platform moat and fortress economics temporarily overshadowed by cautious positioning. Durable Data Center dominance, elite margins, and discounted forward growth multiples contrast with concentration, Taiwan/China exposure, and active distribution by sophisticated investors, favoring a premium long-term compounder narrative tempered by elevated expectations and near-term sentiment headwinds.